Probability of Thrown sticks in Senet
This Nugget has been written by Buddha on 23 May at 10:33AM
Category: Senet
1. The rules say "four sticks are thrown" which may mean the fifth stick is never thrown shows color (keeps you from getting a zero)
2. The rules also say "Each stick that falls color-up counts as one point, and the player moves by 5 points if neither stick falls color-up". They must mean if NO stick falls color up. So that means that the fifth stick not thrown is always a non-color unless the four sticks thrown are non-color and in that case they all end up with color. I haven't checked--do all 5 sticks show color or none of them when you get that rare 5?
3. If we go with the second scenario, then getting a four and a five are equally likely (.5)^4 = 6.25% -- once every 16 throws or so.
4. There are 4 ways of getting one color and 4 ways of getting 3 colors on a toss -- 25% each 5. There are 6 ways of getting two colors so the probability of getting a 3 is 6/16 = .375.
So the Probabilities (as I calculate them) are:
Roll Probability
5 6.25% 4 6.25% 3 25% 2 37.5% 1 25%
100%
Nugget Votes
This Nugget has received 6 upvotes and no downvotes. You need to log in first to vote on Nuggets.
Nugget Comments
A Graphical Repesentation
Posted on 22 Dec at 1:00AM by 12-16
Here is a graphical representation of what Buddha wrote.
CCCC, CCCU, CCUC, CCUU
CUCC, CUCU, CUUC, CUUU
UCCC, UCCU, UCUC, UCUU
UUCC, UUCU, UUUC, UUUU
C stands for Colored and U stands for Uncolored.
1 is represented by CUUU, UCUU, UUCU or UUUC.
Probability - 4/16 or 0.25 or 25%
2 is represented by CCUU, CUCU, CUUC, UCCU, UCUC or UUCC.
Probability - 6/16 or 0.375 or 37.5%
3 is represented by CCCU, CCUC, CUCC or UCCC.
Probability - 4/16 or 0.25 or 25%
4 is represented by CCCC.
Probability - 1/16 or 0.0625 or 6.25%
5 is represented by UUUU.
Probability - 1/16 or 0.0625 or 6.25%
I had never heard of Senet before coming to this site, and I'm liking it as much as Checkers!
CCCC, CCCU, CCUC, CCUU
CUCC, CUCU, CUUC, CUUU
UCCC, UCCU, UCUC, UCUU
UUCC, UUCU, UUUC, UUUU
C stands for Colored and U stands for Uncolored.
1 is represented by CUUU, UCUU, UUCU or UUUC.
Probability - 4/16 or 0.25 or 25%
2 is represented by CCUU, CUCU, CUUC, UCCU, UCUC or UUCC.
Probability - 6/16 or 0.375 or 37.5%
3 is represented by CCCU, CCUC, CUCC or UCCC.
Probability - 4/16 or 0.25 or 25%
4 is represented by CCCC.
Probability - 1/16 or 0.0625 or 6.25%
5 is represented by UUUU.
Probability - 1/16 or 0.0625 or 6.25%
I had never heard of Senet before coming to this site, and I'm liking it as much as Checkers!